On behalf of South Florida Water Management District, Infotech Consulting performed an analysis of monthly total phosphorus data for water quality regulatory compliance purposes. Water quality regulations require that phosphorus loads in the water supply do not exceed a calculated upper bound more than two times during a consecutive 12-month period.

Using water flow data from December 1995 to September 2005 to predict the upper bound of future loads, and adjusting for monthly rainfall, Infotech Consulting implemented an autoregressive time series model to determine if phosphorus loads were in compliance from December 2005 through October 2007. The analysis found only two months of excedence in a 12-month period ending October 2007, establishing the necessary standard of “reasonable assurance” of compliance with phosphorus load limits.